Which drugs will reign supreme in six years? It’s not too soon to roll out a crystal ball and make predictions.
Recently, EvaluatePharma, a market research and consulting firm, released a global forecasting report aiming to do that.
Overall, the firm predicts that the pharma industry will continue to stabilize as it rebounds from the financial crisis and experience an annual compound growth rate of 6 percent between now and 2024.
Novel therapies targeting unmet medical needs will be a major factor driving growth. But several heavy-hitters in the pharma market will continue to dominate the top spots — at least until they fall off the patent cliff and become threatened by generics entering the market. In fact, EvaluatePharma predicts that generics and biosimilars will put $251 billion in sales at risk between 2018 and 2024.
Growing pressure from payers in the market could also lower sales figures as consumers demand lower prices for drugs.
Here’s a look at which medications could rule pharma sales in 2024:
Despite EvaluatePharma projecting a negative 3 percent growth rate for Humira over the next eight years, there’s still no beating AbbVie’s blockbuster drug. Part of its dominance comes from the 10 approved indications the FDA has given Humira, which is generally prescribed as an anti-inflammatory. Although many companies are developing biosimilars that will target the drug’s hold on the market, Humira will still claim the top spot.
Global 2024 sales: $15.23 billion.
Studies showing positive results for Merck and Co.’s cancer immunology drug have been rolling in over the last year and its sales are expected to skyrocket. As one of the most promising treatments on the market for a range of cancers (both common and rare), Keytruda has taken the lead in the lucrative oncology market. In the first quarter of this year, its sales rose by 150 percent and reached $1.46 billion — outpacing analysts’ predictions.
Global 2024 sales: $12.69 billion.
Celgene’s multiple myeloma medication has until 2026 before it facies competition from generics. With that protection, its sales between now and 2024 are expected to grow annually by 6 percent.
Global 2024 sales: $11.93 billion.
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s cancer immunology blockbuster may not be as hot as its main rival, Keytruda, but it will still rake in massive sales. In the first half of 2017 alone, sales for the medication, which helps boost patient’s own immune system to fight cancer, were up 50 percent.
Global 2024 sales: $11.25 billion.
Another big win for BMS, Eliquis is used to prevent blood clots in patients with an irregular heart beat and to treat deep vein thrombosis. According to Forbes, its sales have grown to account for 15 percent of the company’s value. Although its patent is set to expire in 2023, its worldwide sales will be enough to keep it in the top 10.
Global 2024 sales: $10.54 billion.
Released in 2013, Imbruvica has become the leading medication for second-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia and other rare cancers. AbbVie has projected that sales for its blockbuster will reach $5 billion by 2020.
Global 2024 sales: $9.56 billion.
Despite rising competition, Ibrance, a breast cancer medication, has been a major growth driver for Pfizer. A first of its kind CDK 4/6 inhibitor, Ibrance has been approved to use alone or in combination with an AstraZeneca medication for certain patients. Yet, to help keep its dominance on the market, Pfizer is reportedly testing Ibrance on over 35 other cancers.
Global 2024 sales: $8.28 billion.
Developed to treat severe eczema, allergic reactions, cold sores and more, Dupixent was launched by Sanofi and Regeneron last year. Although the $132 million in sales for Dupixent in the first part of 2018 fell short of the expected $165 million, EvaluatePharma still predicts major growth.
Global 2024 sales: $8.06 billion.
Since its release by Regeneron in 2011, Eylea has defied sales forecasts. Used to treat age-related macular degeneration as well as diabetic macular edema, Eylea’s growth is expected to slow but it will remain the top eye medication on the market.
Global 2024 sales: $6.82 billion.
A relative newcomer to the top 10 list, Stelara has become a major buoy for Johnson & Johnson’s portfolio. An auto-immune biologic, Stelara is used to treat psoriasis and Crohn’s disease.
Global 2024 sales: $6.47 billion.