Analyst: Moderna could have a $20B vax on its hands

July 13, 2020

Stocks for Moderna surged this week after an analyst predicted that its coronavirus vaccine could become a blockbuster many times over. 

Although Moderna’s candidate is based on a type of technology — mRNA — that has never been approved for human use, Michael Yee, a Jefferies equity analyst, believes that the hugely anticipated vaccine will pass the finish line and rake in $2 billion in its first year of sales (assuming that 50 million patients receive the vaccine for $50 a pop). When it hits peak sales between 2025-2026, the model used by Jeffries predicts it will pull in $5 billion in sales. But if the vaccine is priced higher (the average price being predicted by analysts is $88) or is administered to more patients, Yee predicts that sales could skyrocket to $20 billion. 

With a late-stage trial involving 30,000 participants scheduled to begin this month, Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine has become one of the lead candidates in a race that now involves about 20 different shots in human trials.

News of the Jeffries prediction sent Moderna stocks soaring by nearly 20 percent on Monday. Its stock has increased by nearly 230 percent since the start of the year.